Is There Enough Gold?

Is There Enough Gold? The Global Supply Crunch No One’s Talking About

What happens when central banks, institutions, and private investors all want more gold at the same time — and there’s not enough to go around?

We’ve entered a new era. One where gold is no longer just a hedge — it’s becoming a strategic weapon, a reserve of power, and a global positioning tool for both nations and individuals.

But here’s the question:

Is there enough supply to meet the coming tidal wave of demand — over the next four years?

Let’s break it down.

1️⃣ The Surge in Demand: Central Banks, Investors, and Panic Buying

Gold demand is already reaching record highs — and it’s not slowing down.

• Goldman Sachs just revised its year-end forecast to $3,300/oz, citing relentless buying by central banks and growing ETF inflows.

• Private investors are flooding in, spurred by geopolitical tensions, fears of de-dollarization, and the increasing realization that fiat currencies have no floor.

• Trump’s talk of hard money, Musk’s gold audit push, and whispers of a weakened dollar are accelerating the stampede.

And it’s not just investors. Governments are hoarding gold at an unprecedented pace.

“We’re not talking about seasonal buying. This is long-term accumulation.”

– Goldman Sachs, March 2025

2️⃣ Who’s Buying It All?

Central Banks: Quietly Cornering the Market

Asian central banks — particularly in China, India, and Russia — are snapping up gold reserves to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.

This is not a trend. This is a paradigm shift.

• Forecasts show multi-year accumulation strategies in play.

• These banks are hoarding as if preparing for a new global financial order.

Private Wealth and Institutions: Late to the Party, but Hungry

• Sovereign wealth funds, pension managers, and billionaires are now playing catch-up.

• Bitcoin volatility has pushed some money back into gold.

• As prices rise, more fear-based demand kicks in — people aren’t buying to grow, they’re buying to survive.

3️⃣ But What About Supply? Is There Enough Gold to Go Around?

Here’s the big problem: gold supply is constrained — and getting tighter.

Let’s look at both sides of the supply pipeline:

A. Mine Production

• Mali expects production to rise in 2025 with the reopening of Barrick Gold’s operations.

• Barrick’s 10-year mine plan aims to hold output around 5 million ounces annually — but that only scratches the surface of demand.

• The Reko Diq mega-mine in Pakistan is expected to come online by late 2028, but that’s too far out to ease pressure now.

Mining is slow, expensive, and politically messy. Supply can’t ramp up overnight.

B. Gold Recycling (Secondary Supply)

• High prices usually trigger more recycling — and we saw a 1% increase in 2024, per the World Gold Council.

• But secondary supply has limits.

• Most of the “easy” gold is already in circulation. The rest? Locked in vaults, or in hands that won’t sell.

4️⃣ A Perfect Storm: Demand Up, Supply Flat, Prices Squeeze Higher

Let’s be blunt: the math doesn’t work.

Demand is surging.

Supply is barely moving.

That gap leads to one inevitable outcome:

Sustained upward pressure on prices — possibly violent ones.

Goldman Sachs sees $3,300/oz.

Others are calling for $3,500 to $4,000 by the end of 2026 if central bank buying continues.

And if there’s a major currency crisis? All bets are off.

5️⃣ Why It Matters: Gold, Bitcoin, and the Next Financial Reset

As Trump signals a possible gold-backed strategy, and Bitcoin continues its rise, we may be seeing the opening moves in a multi-asset financial arms race.

• Gold is analog scarcity.

• Bitcoin is digital scarcity.

Together, they represent an escape from fiat dependency.

But unlike Bitcoin, gold has physical limits — and physical demand. That makes this current supply crunch very real.

If there’s not enough gold…

…what happens when the world goes looking for it?

Final Thoughts: Prepare Accordingly

We are entering a period where gold is being revalued — not just in price, but in purpose.

• It’s no longer just a hedge.

• It’s becoming a cornerstone of power, a statement of independence, and a counterbalance to digital risk.

Over the next four years, gold may transition from a sleepy commodity to the centerpiece of a global monetary realignment.

The question isn’t “will it go higher?”

The question is:

Will you be able to get your hands on any?